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Christie’s Surprise Picasso Buyer and Other Tales From a Long Sale

February 28, 2018 by Marion Maneker

This recap of Christie’s Impressionist-Modern and Surrealist Evening sale in London is available to AMMpro subscribers. Monthly subscriptions begin with the first month free. Feel free to subscribe and cancel before you are billed. 

Christie’s Evening sales of Impressionist and Modern art as well as Surrealist art last night were a success by the numbers. The combined sales made £149.5m which was £13m more than the same sales a year before. If you are looking to those numbers to give you some sense of market direction or mood for what Christie’s now calls the 20th Century art market, you ought to look elsewhere. The sales were punctuated with lots that were avidly pursued though price levels proved important. Estimates over £5m saw light bidding and after many seasons where the auction houses have actively managed their sales to present high sell-through rates, Christie’s ran two large sales last night that they were more than willing to let ‘sell-through’ at only 78% of the works. Make no mistake, 78% is traditionally a solid, very business-like sale result. Only in the last few years of hyper-competition (with the added sense that the Impressionist and Modern market needed to project stability,) have the the sell-through rates consistently posted in the high 80s or low 90s.

We will have a more detailed analysis of the lot-by-lot sales in the next two weeks. For now, here are some impressions.

Continue Reading

London March 2017 Impressionist & Modern Analysis

March 23, 2017 by Marion Maneker

London February Imp-Mod Evening Sales Charts, February 2013-This analysis of sales results—including a list of the most sought after lots and a look at the internal dynamics of the ‘middle market’—is available to AMMpro subscribers. Subscribers get the first month free on monthly subscriptions. Feel free to cancel at any time before the month is up. Sign up for AMMpro here.

For all of the talk about how the Impressionist & Modern (and Surrealism) market is drying up and will soon be like the Old Master market—the occasional astonishing price for a long-held masterpiece punctuating wholesale-like distribution sales of artists known only to a few connoisseurs—the sales in London were demonstration of strength. The sales totals were very strong with combined sell-through rates of 80% which breaks down to nearly 89% across the Evening sales and a 78% for the Day sales. (These figures are for Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Bonhams Impressionist and Modern sales  + Sotheby’s and Christie’s Surrealism sales.)

London IM 317 Charts.005

Even with the Klimt painting making nearly £48m, there was an absence of trophy lots that would drive the top of the market. Taken together, the top ten lots accounted for 44% of the sales total which is a relatively small proportion for a market that is supposedly driven by a few trophy lots.

As you can see from the chart that opens this report, the Evening sales merely recovered to the level of 2014 and 2015. But the day sales were stronger than 2016 but weaker than any of the other three years in the five-year cohort. We’ll get to a closer look at the top lots in the day sales further down in this report. But when we do get there, the charts will show surprisingly strong day sale results.Continue Reading

Don’t Call It a Comeback: A 5-yr Perspective on London’s February Sales Cycle

March 10, 2017 by Marion Maneker

London February Total sales 13-17

This analysis of sales results is available to AMMpro subscribers. Subscribers get the first month free on monthly subscriptions. Feel free to cancel at any time before the month is up. Sign up for AMMpro here.

To many commentators, this chart of the London auctions over the last five years shows that the venue has somehow passed a test of the effects of Brexit and the new Trump administration on the art market. Whatever effect those two events will have on the art market in general and London as an auction capital in particular, the art market will have to wait and see. Neither event has truly taken place yet. The United Kingdom has not triggered Article 50 nor has it seen the real effects of removing itself from the European trade union.

More to the point, the weakness seen in the auction market beginning with last February’s sales cycle came before the surprise Brexit vote or the full impact of the US presidential election. Whatever the causes of the 2016 drop in sales volume seen here and across the Western auction market, the two political events were not directly responsible. The following charts cannot answer the question of what drove down auction totals. But they do shed interesting light upon the composition of the several markets represented in London.Continue Reading

And Just Like That: The Art Market is Fine Again

March 2, 2017 by Marion Maneker

Picasso, Tomato Plant

This summary of the market coverage is available to AMMpro subscribers. Subscribers get the first month free on monthly subscriptions. Feel free to cancel at any time before the month is up. Sign up for AMMpro here.

During the depths of the global financial crisis eight years ago, the art market was severely constrained but did not receive the level of valitudinary scrutiny we see in today’s healthy but constrained market. Of course, the constraints today—sellers with a surfeit of assets and cash seemingly unmotivated to part with great works of art, a lack of market direction with no specific artists or categories providing ‘leadership’—are different from the constraints of the credit crisis when all assets were correlated and falling and only art owners with  no other place to go for cash were selling.

Somehow the focus on the art market’s health now is greater as expectations of ever-continuing rise have met another market disruption. Here’s the Wall Street Journal obsessively fixating on the market’s health:

Market watchers are monitoring these sales of impressionist, modern and contemporary art for signs of a potential art-market turnaround, and collectors say the first week’s results are encouraging.

Sotheby’s record sale for an auction in Europe has given the press the false sense that everything has changed when in reality little about the market has shifted on the demand side.Continue Reading

Sotheby’s London Surrealism Evening Sale = £17.6m ($21.9m)

March 1, 2017 by Marion Maneker

IMG_3585 IMG_3586

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