Art Market Monitor

Wifredo Lam may be one of the most relevant artists to the cultural concerns and interests of today. A Modern master who combined his experience with titanic European figures—Pablo Picasso, Henri Matisse, Georges Braque and Joan Miró—with his own personal identity as a Cuban descendant of African slaves and a Chinese father, Lam stood at the crossroads of 20th Century cultural events, the rise of Surrealism, the effects of the global battle against Fascism during the Spanish Civil War and then the German invasion of France. He returned to Cuba in 1941 a fully formed artist acutely aware of the importance of African art on both European modernism and in Cuban culture.

His most valued works come from this period in the 1940s after his return to Cuba, including a gouache on paper, The Jungle, which is in the collection of the Museum of Modern Art in New York. Christie’s announced that it will offer in its November 11 sale of Modern art, La Réunion (1942) estimated at between $3,000,000 and $4,000,000.

La Réunion comes to market after a steady run of high value sales as Lam’s work migrate from the Latin American subcategory to the marquee auctions. According to the LiveArt.ai database,  Lam’s work first broke through the seven-figure barrier in 1998 with the sale of another work from 1943, Mañana Verde, which made $1.2m at Sotheby’s. Adjusted for inflation, that would be just above $2m today. In 2006, a work from 1944 sold for $2.15m again at Sotheby’s. In 2012, Ídolo, also from 1944, hit $4.5m at auction.

At a Sotheby’s Paris sale in held in 2017, a later work by the artist made $5.2m which stood as the artist’s record until last year when Sotheby’s sold Omi Obini from 1943 for a stunning $9.6m. The next month, Christie’s sold a Femme Cheval, a key image in Lam’s work, from 1950 for $2.4 million.

Christie’s is understandably relating La Réunion to The Jungle but also to the confluence of high culture and global identity:

La Réunion is a wonderful example of Lam’s work, featuring his signature horse-headed woman, or femme cheval. First appearing in Lam’s work in 1940, the femme cheval was initially used to illustrate the Surrealist poetry of his contemporary André Breton. Drawing from post-Cubist and Surrealist sources, including Picasso’s Minotauromachy suite and Weeping Woman series of the mid- to late 1930s, the femme cheval is an amalgamation of European modernism and Afro-Cuban divinity. It simultaneously references the Surrealist penchant for subversion and hybridity with Santería practices in which devotees become transfigured into horses and mounted or possessed by orishas, or supernatural spirits. In La Réunion, the liminal condition with which the femme cheval is rendered successfully captures the equally transformative character of Lam’s work throughout 1942. Bridging European modernity with cubanidad, this massive composition stands among the most successful of Lam’s artworks created during this all critical period, establishing conventions that would come to inform the future of his artistic production.

An art advisor summed up the mood of the Frieze sales in London last week in a comment on Instagram. Observing the top lots at Sotheby’s Evening sale, the advisor wrote, “So it’s either a major Cy Twombly, OR … a Flora Yukhnovich … hmmm.”

The advisor had purchased the Twombly work on paper for £2.8 million at slightly below the low estimate (the client was surely happy about that.) The chagrinned comment was because the Yukhnovich had made £2.2 million—which was more than 30 times the low estimate on a hammer-price basis. 

Cy Twombly had his first show 70 years ago at the Samuel Kootz gallery. Flora Yukhnovich had her MA show four years ago. The painting that was sold for £2.2 million was just shown on her Instagram page 18 months ago. Even though the two works are hardly comparable (relative to each artists’ body of work,) you can see how the Yuknovich sale is emblematic of a market driven by collectors chasing new talents.

Flora Yukhnovich was hardly the only painter to see her work soar above most estimates. The list of artists with the most intense bidding on their work is dominated by painters whose work has only been on the market for a few years; in some cases, these artists were seeing their work sold at auction for the first time.

Among the artists who received the most aggressive bidding during the Frieze auctions were Yukhnovich—who had the top two most in-demand works in the sales—Emily Mae Smith, Ewe Juszkkiewicz, Jadé Fadojutimi, Reggie Burrows Hodges, Isshaq Ismail, Cinga Samson, Serge Attukwei Clottey, Shara Hughes, Tunji Adeniyi-Jones and Hurvin Anderson. (Anderson is one of the few artists with a significant market history who also saw large price-level leaps.)

Bidders may have been elbowing past gallery waiting lists. But the value of the these sales remained concentrated in artists like Gerhard Richter, Jean-Michel Basquiat, David Hockney, Lucio Fontana and Alexander Calder. Works by Banksy, Hurvin Anderson and Cecily Brown represent a generation of younger, living artists whose work is consistently valued in the millions and were among the top ten lots in these sales.

This dichotomy between vibrant competition at a lower price level, the Yukhnovich not withstanding, and a rather orderly but uninspired market at the top suggests we’re reaching the peak of a market swing toward emerging artists. 

Some of the market’s internal numbers indicate we may have not reached that extreme yet. 

Let’s compare the Frieze sales from 2019—the last edition of these sales before the global pandemic—with last week’s numbers. In 2019, £231 million in art was sold during the Frieze auctions. Of the 735 lots offered, 83% found buyers for a sell-through rate of 83%. The hammer ratio for the sales was a moderately robust 1.1; and the top ten lots accounted for 28% of the overall sales total. 

Last week, the overall total was 22% lower. But the number of lots offered was 44% lower. The sell-through rate was 6% higher. The hammer ratio was an even stronger 1.2; 50% of the sold lots went for prices above the high estimate. In 2019, only 38% of the sold lots went for prices above the high estimate. Finally, this year the top ten lots accounted for 40% of the overall sale value. 

These numbers suggest that supply is down and demand is up in the art market. Bidders are chasing lower value works; but those works don’t add up to enough to offset the accumulated value of long-standing names. In other words, Richter, Basquiat, Banksy and others like Twombly still outweigh the value of all of those new names. 

Comparing the two seasons, the number that stands out the most is the average price level. In 2019, the average price of a lot at a Frieze auction was £380,144—a significant amount of money in any context. Two years and a great deal of social and economic dislocation later, the average price at 2021’s Frieze auctions was £497,241. That’s almost a 31% rise in average price. 

The other dramatic change in these sales from 2019 to 2021 is the market share. These sales have brought a number of new names onto the market share chart, including more women and persons of color. Two thirds of the artists on the list are still men of European descent. But a full third of the list are not. 

Richter, Banksy and Basquiat were all among the top four names by market share in 2019. Though Richter and Banksy together accounted for as much as the four names (Fontana had 5.2% of the market share) did in 2019. New names on the market share chart this year are Yukhnovich, Jadé Fadojutimi, Emily Mae Smith, Shara Hughes and Paula Rego. Together they took more than 5% of the money spent in the sale. 

Sotheby’s Hong Kong sales cycle was down substantially from the Spring with the Contemporary art category falling from $141 million in sales to just under $100 million. Looking at the sales results, it would appear the problem was more one of limited supply more than cooling demand.

The top Contemporary art lot, Jean-Michel Basquiat‘s Untitled (Red Warrior), sold after bidding confined to a narrow range just below the low estimate. The guaranteed work seemed to have but two bidders. Only one of them seemed to be bidding with any determination. The $20.9 million result brought the momentum of high-value Basquiat sales in Hong Kong to an abrupt halt.

This Spring there were three Basquiat sales above $30 million in Hong Kong. Aby Rosen’s Warrior had kicked the sales off in March when it made $41.6m. That was followed by the May sale of another 1982 figure for $30.2 million and June sale of a 1985 work featured in a famous portrait of the artist that made $37 million.

The red warrior went to an American buyer. Although auctions at this level are truly global at this point, the sale does reverse some of the market narrative around Asian buyers’ interest.

Overall, the top lots in the evening sale were a mix of Asian and Western artists with only Cecily Brown and Kazuo Shiraga‘s works showing any sign of aggressive bidding. In the chart below, we can see that all but two of the top 10 lots in the Evening sale were sold within the estimate range.

That observation shouldn’t suggest Asian buyers are dormant. The aggressive bidding in Hong Kong was very much on display in the day sale. This list of the top 25 day sale lots is color coded by bidding. The green lots achieved prices above the estimate range. A full 60% of the top 25 lots were sold for prices above the estimate range.

The list includes a range of artists. Bidders were excited by works from Yayoi Kusama (four works in the top 25; three bid above estimates), Yoshitomo Nara (two works in the top 25; one bid above estimates), Lee Ufan, Jonas Wood, Zhang Xiaogang and Shara Hughes who also had a record price set in the Evening sale.

Ding Yi‘s market seems to be having a comeback after a decade of slow sales. There was strong bidding on his Appearance of Crosses, 2002-12. Izumi Kato‘s untitled work confirmed the new level of demand first seen in Hong Kong this May. This is the second sale of the artist’s work in the mid-six-figure range which is roughly twice the previous level of top sales.

Several other artists saw breakout sales on the most dynamic lot list.

During Sotheby’s Hong Kong Contemporary art sales this past weekend, all of the action was in the day sale lots. The sale made $22.5m, an all-time high for a Hong Kong Contemporary art day sale; and, all but one of the top ten most dynamic lots—those bid highest above their pre-sale estimates—were works offered in the Contemporary art day sale. 

What does this tell us? Collectors are looking for the next big thing. 

The biggest of the next big things is clearly Javier Calleja. Three of the Spanish artist’s works were in the top ten lots. Each of the three made a hammer ratio (he hammer price divided by the low estimate) of between 6 and 8 times the low estimate. The price points varied with two works just about in the $250-300k range and one coming at more than double with a $755k premium price. 

The most aggressively bid upon work was Mr. Doodle’s Tokyo Doodle which sold for $650,000 outperforming the artist’s other work that sold well in the Evening sale the day before. Together, works made only two years ago sold for $1.1m over the weekend. 

Zhang Yingnan’s first public sale outside of Mainland China was a huge success with Song of the Sunset selling for ten times the low estimate for a work made the previous year. 

Atushi Kaga’s “I think it was a nightmare” is a a 2020 painting made by a Japanese artist acquired in an Irish gallery and sold in Hong Kong.  The final price represents a four fold increase from the two previous public sales of the artist’s work. 

From an exhibition held two years ago at New York’s Allouche gallery, Rafa Macarrón’s first appearance in an Evening sale for his second work ever sold at auction was a rousing success when it made $550k, the third highest value lot on this list.

 

Tomokazu Matsuyama’s market has accelerated this year with a very strong sale at Christie’s in Hong Kong in May for an earlier work from 2011. This tondo from a series that was selling 6 years ago for $20k has now achieved what might be seen as a confirmation price. The $260k paid for the work was significantly below the record set in May but well above previous prices suggesting some depth in the market at these new levels. 

Susumu Kamijo’s paintings of his dogs have been steadily gaining value over the past year on the auction market. The $90k paid for Rapport Building is right in line with prices paid in May and June in New York.  

Edgar Plans painting Love in a Forest comes to market a few weeks after Phillips achieved a record price of $195k in Hong Kong. Plans market has been very active in 2021 with the previous high water mark set in July at Christie’s in New York. This $80k confirmation price suggests more buyers are waiting in the wings. 

Swann celebrated the end of its 14th year holding African American art auctions—a category the small New York house pioneered—by hitting the highest ever auction total. On October 7th, Swann sold $5,106,585 worth of art across 201 lots. That reflects an 86% sell-through rate.

The top lot of the sales was an oil painting by Hale Woodruff, the most valuable of his abstract works to be sold, that made $665,000. It was followed by an Elizabeth Catlett head that made a new record for the artist at $485,000. The previous record was set just two years ago at Swann too.

These would be strong results in any context. But Swann’s strength in the category continues despite the broad growth of sales of African American artists at larger auction houses. A quick look at a chart of Swann’s results in the category shows how far these sales have come.

The chart clearly shows that the last four years have represented an entirely different level of market activity. In early 2020, Swann had an additional sale of work owned by the Johnson Publishing company. That sale offset some of the disruption caused by the Covid pandemic.

The growth hasn’t only come because of the rising value of African American art, especially the growth in interest and bidding for young figurative painters of the African diaspora. Indeed, Swann’s sales are more focused on historical artists. Although artists like Norman Lewis, Sam Gilliam and Simone Leigh have begun to appear at mainstream auction houses, the value in Swann’s sales tend to be located in work by artists who still do not get featured in other auction house’s sales.

The chart above tracks the results of each sale against the average prices in each sale. Those average prices are more volatile than the overall results. The Johnson Publishing collection had very high average prices for the 87 works sold. That’s not uncommon for single-owner sales. The dip in average prices later during the pandemic year of 2020 and their steady recovery along with sale totals during 2021 suggest the market has been able to retain price levels since 2018.