This analysis of the November 2019 New York Contemporary sales is available to AMMpro subscribers. Monthly subscriptions begin with the first month free. Feel free to subscribe and cancel before you are billed.

There were a number of notable anomalies in the New York sales of Contemporary art earlier this month. The headline numbers were down significantly but the market itself seems to be strengthening. How is that possible? Well, the curious thing about the art market is that the concentration of value in the very top of the market can drive headline sales without actually producing a robust market for art. The pool of buyers for works priced above $50m is obviously quite small no matter how many very wealthy persons there are in the world. But what has become apparent this season, like no other season before it, is that the market for still quite valuable works of art priced anywhere from the tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars, and even to the single-digit millions, is experiencing a critical mass moment.

This is most visible in a single comparison of statistics. The total dollar volume spent on Contemporary art this year in New York declined from the previous year by 21%. The Evening sale total was down even more than that. In November 2018, there was $994m in art purchased in the Evening sales of Contemporary art; but this November that number dropped to $704m or 29% lower year-over-year.

This is the big decline that many observers remarked upon both before and after the sales. What few have noticed is that the Day sale totals were up dramatically. For several years, the auction houses have been concentrating on increasing the sales of Contemporary art in the so-called middle market often seen best in the day sales. Sotheby's has been particularly aggressive in building this high-volume (of lots) and high(er) margin business segment.

Last year, the November day sales of Contemporary art totaled $218m. That was considered quite strong and a testament to the vibrancy of the market. This November, Christie's posted a $117m day sale of Contemporary art, a record for this type of sale. The total across Sotheby's, Phillips, Christie's and Bonhams in Contemporary art day sales was a whopping $263m. That's a nearly 21% rise from an already strong base.

It's too early to tell. But the numbers suggest we've reached new territory in the Contemporary art market.

This analysis of the October 2019 Frieze Contemporary in New York is available to AMMpro subscribers. Monthly subscriptions begin with the first month free. Feel free to subscribe and cancel before you are billed.

The Frieze auctions were down a little under 12% from 2018. That's a meaningful drop but hardly the dramatic fall that talk of Brexit and an uncertain art market would suggest. That 12% drop came mostly from the fall in the average price level. There were approximately the same number of works offered in 2018 and 2019 with a slightly lower sell through rate this year: 86% in 2018; 83% in 2019.

The average price for 2018 was £424k; in 2019, the average price was £380.144. That's a 10% drop.

That's not necessarily bad news. These numbers suggest, along with other market factors, that the lower price points are strengthening, not weakening, and the market is building a broader base of buying. That broader base is good news for the auction houses who make better margins from the cheaper lots and better news for the market participants. It suggests a greater distribution of buying activity (although that is not verifiable from the publicly available numbers.)