This analysis of the November 2019 New York Contemporary sales is available to AMMpro subscribers. Monthly subscriptions begin with the first month free. Feel free to subscribe and cancel before you are billed.

There were a number of notable anomalies in the New York sales of Contemporary art earlier this month. The headline numbers were down significantly but the market itself seems to be strengthening. How is that possible? Well, the curious thing about the art market is that the concentration of value in the very top of the market can drive headline sales without actually producing a robust market for art. The pool of buyers for works priced above $50m is obviously quite small no matter how many very wealthy persons there are in the world. But what has become apparent this season, like no other season before it, is that the market for still quite valuable works of art priced anywhere from the tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars, and even to the single-digit millions, is experiencing a critical mass moment.

This is most visible in a single comparison of statistics. The total dollar volume spent on Contemporary art this year in New York declined from the previous year by 21%. The Evening sale total was down even more than that. In November 2018, there was $994m in art purchased in the Evening sales of Contemporary art; but this November that number dropped to $704m or 29% lower year-over-year.

This is the big decline that many observers remarked upon both before and after the sales. What few have noticed is that the Day sale totals were up dramatically. For several years, the auction houses have been concentrating on increasing the sales of Contemporary art in the so-called middle market often seen best in the day sales. Sotheby's has been particularly aggressive in building this high-volume (of lots) and high(er) margin business segment.

Last year, the November day sales of Contemporary art totaled $218m. That was considered quite strong and a testament to the vibrancy of the market. This November, Christie's posted a $117m day sale of Contemporary art, a record for this type of sale. The total across Sotheby's, Phillips, Christie's and Bonhams in Contemporary art day sales was a whopping $263m. That's a nearly 21% rise from an already strong base.

It's too early to tell. But the numbers suggest we've reached new territory in the Contemporary art market.

This analysis of the October 2019 Frieze Contemporary in New York is available to AMMpro subscribers. Monthly subscriptions begin with the first month free. Feel free to subscribe and cancel before you are billed.

The Frieze auctions were down a little under 12% from 2018. That's a meaningful drop but hardly the dramatic fall that talk of Brexit and an uncertain art market would suggest. That 12% drop came mostly from the fall in the average price level. There were approximately the same number of works offered in 2018 and 2019 with a slightly lower sell through rate this year: 86% in 2018; 83% in 2019.

The average price for 2018 was £424k; in 2019, the average price was £380.144. That's a 10% drop.

That's not necessarily bad news. These numbers suggest, along with other market factors, that the lower price points are strengthening, not weakening, and the market is building a broader base of buying. That broader base is good news for the auction houses who make better margins from the cheaper lots and better news for the market participants. It suggests a greater distribution of buying activity (although that is not verifiable from the publicly available numbers.)

This analysis of the Swann Galleries'  is available to AMMpro subscribers. Monthly subscriptions begin with the first month free. Feel free to subscribe and cancel before you are billed.

The growth of the African American art market has been a buttressed in some of the most important ways by the efforts of Nigel Freeman and his team at Swann Galleries. Beginning in 2009, Freeman and Swann have steadily built the market for Modern and Contemporary art by African-American artists. Until 2015, growth was limited. But from 2015 to 2017, Swann's African American sales were substantially higher over both sales held that year. The new market volume wasn't sustainable but over the next two years, Swann was able to steadily increase sales auction by auction.

This analysis of the September 2019 Mid-season Contemporary in New York is available to AMMpro subscribers. Monthly subscriptions begin with the first month free. Feel free to subscribe and cancel before you are billed.

Sales during the Mid-Season Contemporary auctions in New York rose again by almost 12% this year over last. The total sale for all three houses was $64m an increase over last year's $57.3m and the $46.6m made in 2017. The rate of increase is slowing. But the total sales volume and the average price of a work sold in these auctions is still higher this year over the last two. Sell-through rates remains the same and only slightly fewer lots were offered this year as last year.

What is surprising to learn is that after years of growth in this so-called middle market, some shifts are beginning to emerge. The top ten lots sold that week accounted for almost a quarter of the total sales volume in September. That's up from closer to 21% the year before. The hammer ratio was also a weak .96 suggesting the estimates are now fully in line with buyer's expectations.

This AMMpro post is made possible with data from our friends at Pi-eX. Subscribers will see charts made from the last 10 years of Q2 data compiled by Pi-eX. Monthly AMMpro subscriptions begin with a free month before you are billed. Feel free to cancel your subscription before you are billed if you do not like the information provided.

Pi-eX compiles the reported sales figures at the three international auction houses. In an effort to track activity in the art and luxury auction markets, Pi-eX reports regularly on the quarterly results. Separately, they report on the annual results.

Here we see charts of the last ten years of second quarter results. With the overall numbers broken down three different ways: by type of property (including whether the property came from an significant estate); by region; and by auction value with breakdowns by sales above $100m, below $100m and less than $10m.

The headline here is that although the second quarter of 2019 was below the total for 2018, the key difference in outcomes was not a decline in the market but the absence of some huge private collections sold during the period. Whether we look at the total sales for the auction houses—including design objects, watches and other property—or we only consider the sales of fine art, the chart says the same thing.

From 2016, when the market went through a dramatic reset, to present, there has been a steady rise is fine art sales. The Q2 total for Fine Art was about the same in 2018 and 2019 if you remove private collections like the massive Rockefeller sale and the Mandel collection. That plateau was still higher than 2017 and 2016. So the market's fall this year is better understood as a return to trend. Though that trend is slowing.