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Sotheby’s Hong Kong Spring Sales, 2007-2019

April 2, 2019 by Marion Maneker

This analysis of six years of Spring Sales in Hong Kong of Modern and Contemporary Art Evening sales was made possible with data from our friends at Pi-eX. It is available to AMMpro subscribers. Subscriptions begin with a free month for the curious. 

Sotheby’s had another strong sale in Hong Kong today. With reports that the Chinese market was in decline coming out shortly before this sales cycle, few were expecting the Hong Kong sales to be robust. Then, over the first two days of the cycle, auction totals and sell-through rates were very, very strong. Asian Modern and Contemporary seems to have made a shift from previous performance to much greater value.

In the Modern category, Zao Wou-ki is emerging as the market-driving force with the ability to generate high prices for individual works and have enough material to create market volume. In 2018, Zao sold $326m worth of art at auction and reached a peak price of $65m. At Sotheby’s this week, the Modern evening sale reached $101m with $55m coming from Zao’s work.

Sotheby’s Contemporary Evening sale was more restrained with $56m in sales but records were set for Asian artists like Yayoi Kusama and non-Asian artists like Julie Mehretu. It is far too early to drawn conclusions or trends from this one sales cycle—and the totals are still relatively low compared to New York’s sales cycles—but Asian market is beginning to approach new levels.

The charts Pi-eX has prepared for us here compare similar sales from previous sale cycles at Sotheby’s and from the comparable sales at Sotheby’s and Phillips over the same period. These charts only cover the Evening Modern and Contemporary sales. They do not include valuable sales in other categories or single-owner sales. What we’re charting here is the growth of the Modern and Contemporary art market in Hong Kong.Continue Reading

London Winter Contemporary Sales, 2007-2019

March 15, 2019 by Marion Maneker

This 13-year analysis of the February Contemporary Art Evening sales was made possible with data from our friends at Pi-eX. It is available to AMMpro subscribers. Subscriptions begin with a free month for the curious. 

If you had the feeling the Winter Contemporary sales in London last week were a bit of a letdown, you weren’t wrong. On a like-for-like basis, these sales have taken a big step back to 2016 levels when the overall market experienced a steep 16% decline from the previous year, according to Clare McAndrew’s recent report for Art Basel and UBS.

Add to that the big lump of the final price of David Hockney’s Henry Geldzahler and Christopher Scott which sold for £37m. But if we look at the composition of these sales in the chart below, we can see that the parallels to 2016 are quite strong.

Notice that the top end of the market of works over £10m is quite constrained. Continue Reading

The Top of the Auction Market, 2007-2018

January 22, 2019 by Marion Maneker

This analysis of the 12 years of Evening sales at Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips was made possible with data from our friends at Pi-eX. It is available to AMMpro subscribers. Subscriptions begin with a free month for the curious. (Please note: these numbers do not include single-owner and curated sales that have punctuated the market at various times. The point of these charts is to show year-over-year changes and so the single-owner and curated sales are thought to interfere with a consistent comparison.)

Making sense of the last 12 years of Evening sales at the three auction houses in London and New York, it helps to look at the breakdown of auction value by lot value. In other words, how much of the market is attributable to the most valuable lots or to the middle market lots. These are evening sales so the overall value of the lots is very high. Pi-eX has broken the lots down into those over $10m, works that sold for between $4m and $10m, works sold for $1-4m and works below $1m.Continue Reading

Solid Results at Lower Price Points, Paris Contemporary Analysis

January 3, 2019 by Marion Maneker

Jean-Paul Riopelle, Forestine (2.5-3.5m) €4.328m

This detailed analysis of the December Contemporary art sales in Paris was made possible with data from our friends at Live Auction Art. It is available to AMMpro subscribers. Subscriptions begin with a free month for the curious.

The Paris Contemporary art sales showed consistent strength this December even after the blowout results of last June when the combined sales reached €94m. The December sales were almost half that value at $47.5m reflecting not a decline in the Paris market so much as a return to the normal volumes.

On a percentage basis, the Parisian Contemporary art sales were in line on sell-through rates at around 80%. The top ten lots totaled €20m a number very similar to the top ten lots sold in June of 2017. Though in these sales, that €20m accounted for a much higher 42.5% of the overall value of the sales.

Perhaps most significantly, the average lot value for Contemporary art sold in Paris was €114k, a number lower that either in June of this year or June of last year.

Among the 79% of the lots that found buyers, the bulk (47%) were sold at prices within the estimate range. Only 36% of the sold lots made prices above the high estimate. A much smaller minority, 16%, were sold at prices below the seller’s hopes and expectations.Continue Reading

A Picker’s Market: Impressionist and Modern Market Analysis, Nov 2018

November 28, 2018 by Marion Maneker

This analysis of the November 2018 Impressionist and Modern sales in New York is available to AMMpro subscribers. Monthly subscriptions begin with the first month free. Feel free to subscribe and cancel before you are billed.

The November Impressionist and Modern Evening sales were 19.4% lower this season than a year ago. The sell-through rates were down by 10% and the hammer ratio (the measure of hammer performance against low estimates) was also substantially lower falling from 1.17 to .89 which shows the willingness of sellers to compromise and the need to accept more realistic estimates for classic art.

The average price for an evening sale lot sold in November fell 12.5% year over year. Last year it was $5.4m; this year the average lot value was $4.77m for the evening sale. Lots were fairly evenly distributed with almost half the lots failing to find buyers or selling at prices below the low estimates. Another way to look at that breakdown is to say that 52% of lots sold within or above estimates.

Finally, evidence of the top end of the market losing steam comes in the portion of the sale accounted for by the top ten lots. Last year, nearly half of the value generated in the evening sales, 47.5%, came from the top ten lots. This year, that proportion fell to 39.5%. A falling share for the top ten lots is not necessarily a bad signal for the market.Continue Reading

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