Kelly Crow totes up the Warhols on offer and comes up with a number that could be surprisingly low when its all said and done:

Andy Warhol also appears unstoppable: The two houses will offer 19 examples by the Pop master valued at an estimated $265 million combined in their evening sales alone.

By our math, the number is a bit higher. Sotheby’s has nine Warhols in the Evening sale for a high estimate of $86.5m or thereabouts. Christie’s has 11 Warhols in its Evening sale. But the numbers are shockingly higher. First there’s the two works being sold by a German casino that are estimated conservatively at $60m each. Earlier announcements from the firm had the two making $150m. With the other nine works at Christie’s, the high estimate would make $228.5m give or take a few mil. Throw in three Warhols at Phillips’s Evening sale and there’s a high estimate of $319m on the artist.

The day sales have an additional 51 works. Christie’s alone is looking at $14+m for their day Warhols. Put it all together and we get a potential $333m on the high side.

Say there’s market fatigue. Too many Warhols coming to market at once puts off some of the buyers. To give you a little perspective, we’ve had these kinds of Warhol orgies before. In May of  2011, all three auction houses sold 54 Warhols for a total of $179m. Eighteen months later, it was 65 Warhols making $200.8m.

To achieve that, we’ll need to see more than just the “iconic” Warhols set new spots in the top five, later works like Gunter Sachs’s Bardot portrait will have to set new benchmark prices too.

A Blue-Chip Glut at New York Fall Art Auctions  (WSJ)