Over the past decade, Edvard Munch’s market has been characterized by steady growth punctuated by explosive moments (Fig. 10). His average price for a painting has risen by 587% since 2000, going from $242,967 in 2000 to $1,668,519 in 2009. Since 2006, his auction record has been reset three times: Summer Day brought $10,975,088 in 2006; fast forward two years, and Girls on a Bridge, the painting that sold in 1996 for $7,702,500— Munch’s auction record for nearly a decade prior to the sale of Summer Day—appeared at auction again and sold for $30,841,000; just months later, Vampire brought Munch’s current auction high of $38,162,500. Next week’s sales may bear yet another reset as Fertility comes on the block at Christie’s. The work’s $25 million to $35 million estimate may seem overzealous at first, but the houses are usually on the mark with Munch’s paintings. Between 2007 and 2009, only one of the 19 Munch paintings offered failed to sell, and 17 sold either in range or above their estimates (Fig. 12). Works with similar provenance performed well against their estimates: Of the two recent auction offerings that, like Fertility, once belonged to Dr. Max Linde, one sold in range and the other (the aforementioned Summer Day) nearly doubled its estimate. In addition to a notable provenance, Fertility is distinguished by its exceptional size (2,605 square inches). Munch’s priciest paintings have not necessarily been his largest; Vampire measured 1,706 square inches and Girls on a Bridge was 1,608 square inches. But on the whole (with outliers excluded), size is definitely correlated with price in his market (Fig. 11). Last, but certainly not least, the work has a mammoth exhibition record. Exhibition history explains more than 36% of the variance in Munch’s prices, and his most expensive works are also his most widely exhibited. Until now, Vampire had the longest exhibition history of a Munch offered at auction since 2000, but Fertility bests its resume by 6 venues. Looks like Munch’s market is in for another harvest.
